NZD: NZD Jumps 1% As Geopolitical Tensions Cool
Feb-20 21:39
* The NZD/USD rose 1.05% on Thursday to 0.5765, it's highest level for the year. The move higher c...
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STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Slightly Softer Ahead Q4 CPI
Jan-21 21:33
RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer ahead of Q4 CPI data.
- 45bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 110bps by November 2025.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. Yesterday (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
STIR: Fed Hold Firmly Priced For Next Week, 2025 Cut Pricing Settles Around 40bp
Jan-21 21:24
A week out from the first day of the FOMC's 2-day January meeting, Fed rate pricing was almost unchanged Tuesday vs Friday (the last full session before Monday's market close).
- Fed funds futures continue to see the next 25bp cut in July, with 39bp of cuts through the whole of 2025 (1bp more than seen at Friday's close).
- That said, 2025 cut pricing was as high as 43bp overnight -equalling last week's post CPI levels - alongside a rally in the rest of the fixed income complex, on Trump tariff headlines.
- But the move faded in early trade, with Dec25 implied Fed Funds settling at 3.94% (39bp of cuts from 4.33% effective Fed funds spot).
- With no FOMC speakers ahead of next week's meeting (a hold is almost 100% priced), and market-moving data limited until Thursday's jobless claims, attention for potential market movers will be first and foremost on Trump administration policy announcements.
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Prior Session (Jan 17) | Chg Since Then (bp) |
| Jan 29 2025 | 4.33 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 4.33 | -0.1 |
| Mar 19 2025 | 4.26 | -6.7 | -6.4 | 4.25 | 0.9 |
| May 07 2025 | 4.20 | -12.6 | -5.9 | 4.20 | 0.5 |
| Jun 18 2025 | 4.11 | -21.9 | -9.3 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Jul 30 2025 | 4.07 | -26.2 | -4.3 | 4.07 | -0.5 |
| Sep 17 2025 | 4.01 | -32.0 | -5.8 | 4.02 | -0.5 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 3.98 | -35.3 | -3.3 | 3.98 | -0.6 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.94 | -38.9 | -3.6 | 3.95 | -1.0 |
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
Jan-21 21:19
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 31D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 90D SUVBI Bills
- Thailand to Sell 20 Billion Thb of New 2035 Bonds.
- China to Sell 126 Billion Yuan 2034 Bonds
- China to Sell 55 Billion Yuan 91-Day Bills
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530008)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 7.5Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535021)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 2.0Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2045 Bonds; (TD2545046)
- India to Sell 80 Billion Rupees 364-Day Bills
- India to Sell 80 Billion Rupees 182-Day Bills
- India to Sell 120 Billion Rupees 91-Day Bills
