US TSYS: Off Highs But 10s Still Hold FOMC Minutes Initial Gains

• In FX, the latest recovery in EURUSD appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish.
• The primary trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2371, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would highlight a stronger corrective phase and signal scope for an extension, possibly towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2545. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.2100, the Jan 10 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.
• The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.32, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.

• In the aftermath of the WSJ report induced volatility, EURCHF rose to a near four-month high at 0.9461, notably piercing above the pre-US election highs situated just below the 0.9450 mark. While the cross has pulled back today, price has been consolidating above 0.94 and moving average indicators are turning more bullish in tandem.
• With this in mind, a cluster of daily highs around the 0.95 handle remain a key target for the move should the Swiss Franc continue to underperform. This might closely coincide with USDCHF returning to cycle highs around 0.9200 and the key medium term resistance area between 0.9224/44.
• As a reminder last week, Bank of America recommended buying a 3m 0.92/0.9450 USDCHF call spread, citing "trade uncertainty, strong growth and policy divergence" behind a stronger Dollar alongside bullish technical conditions and a forward discount / carry factors supporting the position.
• The Swiss calendar remains light until CPI data on February 13, with the SNB not meeting again until March 20.

Schatz Swap related trade, suggest more Paying flows:

• DUH5 ~11.6k at 106.615.

French OAT has now also closed its opening gap, following on the Bund and Tnotes (TYH5).

Next support in Bund will be seen at 131.50, was not only Yesterday's low, but also Friday's low.