OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Trades Higher

Apr-02 18:39

WTI ended the day trading higher as the market remains uncertain ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement at 4pm ET.

  • WTI MAY 25 up 0.8% at 71.78$/bbl
  • US President Trump has said that the tariffs will take effect immediately, while Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there will be a “cap” and that countries can negotiate to reduce the tariff they face below this. There could be a tiered tariff structure along with specific reciprocal taxes, according to Bloomberg.
  • A 10% tariff on US oil imports could lead to heavy crude discounts, higher wholesale prices, Goldman says.
  • A bipartisan group of 50 US senators tabled a sanctions plan on Russia and those who buys its fossil fuels, if Russia’s President Putin doesn’t honestly negotiate a truce and then stick to it.
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Mar 28: Crude stocks +6,165 vs Exp -224, Crude production +6, SPR stocks +285, Cushing stocks +2,373
  • Canada’s Trans Mountain oil pipeline has downgraded forecasts for oil expected to flow through over the next three years, as the newly extended pipeline increases more slowly than expected, Reuters said.
  • Canadian oil is entering the trade war with the US backed by the strongest pricing for its crude in four years, cushioning it against the impact of US tariffs.
  • OPEC+ ministers are expected to discuss the need for members to abide by their oil supply quotas in today’s meeting, delegates told Bloomberg.
  • Guyana’s oil supply is expected to surge in late 2025 as Exxon’s 250k b/d Yellowtail project nears its startup, Kpler said.
  • Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote imported around 14m bbl of crude in March, Bloomberg said.
  • MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: Pressure Mounts on Sanctioned Barrels: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJsdgKAlOkI6a02IRt0Gw~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x67FUpWhptIPjO1OcQ

Historical bullets

US: Trump To Make "Investment Announcement" Shortly

Mar-03 18:31

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to make an “investment announcement” at the White House. LIVESTREAM

  • Trump is expected to announce a USD$100 billion investment from TSMC. See earlier bullet: US: Trump To Announce $100B TSMC Investment
  • Trump has previously appeared alongside CEOs of SoftBank, OpenAI, Apple, and DAMAC to announce private investment projects, touting them as wins for his administration’s business-friendly policies.
  • Trump may also highlight a recent decision by Honda to make its next Civic hybrid vehicle in the US rather than Mexico, with Reuters noting, “the move to make the model in the US would avoid potential tariffs on one of its top-selling car models.”

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support

Mar-03 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.2880 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
  • RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
  • PRICE: 1.2710 @ 16:23 GMT Mar 3 
  • SUP 1: 1.2538 50-day EMA     
  • SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
  • SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support  
  • SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3    

A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact - for now - and this suggests the latest pullback is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2538, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large June'25 5Y Sale

Mar-03 18:29
  • -10,000 FVM5 108-02.25, sell through 108-02.5 post time bid at 1316:34ET, DV01 $442,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-02.75 last (+4.75)