OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Down 3% on Week

Jan-31 19:38

WTI has struggled for clear direction today, with news that 25% tariffs will likely be placed on US imports from Canada and Mexico sparking spikes and then dips in crude. Crude has finished the day trading lower and down 3% on the week.

  • WTI MAR 25 down 0.4% at 72.46$/bbl
  • The US total oil rig count: 479 (+7) -down 20 rigs, or 4.0% on the year.
  • The White House said that 25% tariffs would be put in place on Canada and Mexico from Feb. 1.
  • Canadian Foreign minister Melanie Joly says the US would be forced to buy oil from geopolitical rivals such as Venezuela if it disrupted trade with Canada.
  • Chevron is seeking to protect a special US license allowing it to operate in Venezuela.
  • CNN reports that US President Donald Trump's envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, is set to meet with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduo on a visit to the country today.
  • January’s exports of Mexican crude slumped amid bad weather and debt that is restraining Pemex’s output.
  • The JMMC overseeing the OPEC+ crude production agreement is expected to recommend continuing the current policy at its Feb. 3, Platts said.
  • US President Trump’s promise to refill the US SPR could face a host of practical and political roadblocks, experts told Platts.
  • Goldman Sachs has increased its Brent crude forecast by $2/bbl.
  • The Suez Canal Authority has urged shipping companies to resume using the canal, citing reduced safety concerns due to a halt in Houthi rebel attacks, Platts said.
  • Anti-KRG Shia MPs are obstructing joint Baghdad-Erbil efforts to pass a budget amendment allowing higher remuneration to Kurdistan-based IOCs, MEES said.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs

Dec-31 19:18
  • Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
  • Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
  • No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
  • Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.

COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher

Dec-31 18:47

WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.

  • WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
  • Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
  • Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
  • Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
  • Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
  • Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02

US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming

Dec-31 18:36
  • Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
  • Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
  • Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
  • Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
  • On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
  • Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
  • Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.