OIL: Oil Firms Watch for Wider Industry Return to Red Sea Transit

• With German Bund through 131.59, the Yield is testing 2.55%, and further out would see 2.60% next, this equates to 131.06.
• We noted earlier the 127.82 support in UBH5, which equated to the November high for the 30yr Yield at 2.753%, this is now being tested, printing a 2.758% high, highest since early July.
• French OAT has broken below the 122.00 figured, and the 10yr Yield will now be targeting the 2024 high in Yield.

While domestic issuers have stepped receded after the record issuance since Monday ($96.5B), foreign bank and supra sovereign US$ issuance continues:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
• 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
• 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
• 01/08 $Benchmark IADB 5Y SOFR+42a
• 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
• 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
• 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a

• RES 4: 93.09 High Dec 20 
• RES 3: 92.88 20-day EMA 
• RES 2: 92.13/60 High Jan 7 / 3
• RES 1: 91.58 Intraday high              
• PRICE: 90.48 @ 12:01 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 90.29 Intraday low                          
• SUP 2: 90.00 Psychological round number   
• SUP 3: 89.64 2.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 8943 2.382 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Today’s sell-off highlights an acceleration of the trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 90.00 psychological handle. Initial resistance is at 91.58, today’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 92.88, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.