OIL: Oil Prices Set for New Boom After 2035: Rapidan
Oil prices are set for a new boom period from the middle of the next decade on continued demand growth in China and elsewhere, according to Rapidan Energy.
- “As expectations of a 2030 peak in global demand recede, the reality of a structurally short supply side will come into view,” Rapidan’s Bob McNally said in a report. “Spare capacity dwindles by 2035 and prices enter a boom cycle.”
- World oil consumption is seen growing until 2050 in each of the three scenarios based on varying levels of EV growth, with consuming countries unwilling to accept the downsides of a mass shift to EVs, Rapidan said.
- Without sufficient in new oil supply projects, prices could surge to $150/b, Rapidan said.
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Could Pause As Prices Spike in 2025-Gagnon
MNI speaks with former senior Fed board economist Joseph Gagnon in the latest episode of the FedSpeak Podcast.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
BELGIUM: De Wever Reappointed Formateur For 2 Weeks In Effort To 'Break Impasse'
Bart De Wever, leader of the Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), has been reappointed by King Philippe as formateur for an additional two weeks in an effort to break the ongoing impasse in forming a governing coalition following the 9 June general election. De Wever's prior period as formateur expired on 12 November, but this has now been extended to 25 November.
- De Wever had been looking to put together a so-called 'Arizona' coalition that would include his N-VA, the centre-right Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V), the centre-left Vooruit, the liberal Reformist Movement (MR) and the liberal Les Engages (LE). It appeared that this gov't had no chance of formation following the leader of Vooruit Conner Rousseau withdrawing from talks due to the conservative economic policies of N-VA and MR.
- Reports claim that De Wever is attempting to draw Vooruit back into the coalition, with the prospect of caretaker PM Alexander De Croo's centrist Open Vld replacing the centre-left Flemish-speaking party dismissed by De Wever as leaving too-narrow a majority for the gov't (76 seats vs 74 for the opposition).
- A recent poll from HLN/VTM News/iVox showed a majority of Flemings in favour of both the 'Arizona' coalition being formed and De Wever serving as PM. If he can bring together a majority gov't he will be the first Belgian PM from an overtly separatist Flemish party.
Chart 1. Belgian Chamber of Representatives, Seats (Changes in 2024 Election)
Source: IBZ, MNI
US: Hegseth Picks Up Key Endorsement From Senate Armed Services Chair
An endorsement from Senator Roger Wicker (R-MI), likely to be the next chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has cleared a major obstacle for Fox News host Pete Hegseth to be confirmed as President-elect Donald Trump's Defense Secretary.
- Wicker said, per CNN: “No, I don't have concerns. I'm delighted at the prospect of working with [Hegseth].”
- Wicker is one of the most hawkish members of the Republican defence establishment. He has called on the next administration to boost defence spending by USD$55 billion in the short-term, with a medium-term goal of hitting 5% of GDP - a Pentagon budget not seen since the height of the Cold War.
- Politico notes that Wicker's plan involves, “a short-term generational investment” to deter an increasingly cooperative Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, which he has termed an “Axis of Aggressors.”
- Hegseth's nomination came as a shock to much of the defence establishment, including many Republicans who expected a more experienced pick in line with Trump's relatively restrained executive branch nominations.
- Much of the media coverage of Hegseth's nomination has focused on his commitment to carry out a root and branch overhaul of diversity policies in the Department of Defense. More broadly, Hegseth's appointment may be a nod towards loyalty after the combative relationship Trump had with military leaders during his first term.
