OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Fall
Feb-05 19:29
Diesel cracks are trading lower today despite a draw in stocks and another increase in implied demand. Cracks are under pressure as markets assess rising global trade friction.
- US gasoline crack down 0.4$/bbl at 15.01$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 29.07$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jan 31Gasoline stocks +2,233 vs Exp -75: Implied mogas demand +26, Distillate stocks -5,471 vs Exp -1,933, Implied dist demand +93
- Albashneft oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region hit by Ukrainian drone overnight sparking a fire, Reuters reports.
- A Ukrainian drone attack at Russia’s 300,000 bpd Volgograd refinery on Monday has resulted in a shutdown this week three sources told Reuters.
- Pemex may be able to restart the Dos Bocas refinery as soon as this month, according to President Claudia Sheinbaum cited by Bloomberg.
- Exxon Mobil Corp.’s 609k b/d Beaumont refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast was operating its FCC normally Wednesday following an upset Tuesday, a person familiar with operations said.
- Libya’s 120k b/d Zawiya refinery, the country’s largest functioning refinery, resumed operations Dec. 23, a source from NOC told Reuters.
- South Korean and Japanese refiners are willing to procure significantly more Mexican and Canadian crude should producers seek to diversify their sales outlets in light of US tariffs threats, Platts reports.
- China’s independent refineries relying on imported fuel oil as a feedstock for gasoline and diesel have seen the import tariff on fuel on rise from 1%-3% effective Jan. 1, OilChem said.
- Fujairah oil product inventories fell 2.8% in the week ended Feb. 3 to 18.328 million barrels from a six-month high a week earlier according to FOIZ data.
- MNI Commodity Weekly: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJsdgDbk74I6a1icRh0Eg~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x67HCZL2ptIPjO1OcQ
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Inflation Uptick Sees Bunds Underperform
Jan-06 19:15
Core European yields rose to start the week, with Bunds underperforming Gilts Monday.
- State-level German data in the morning correctly pointed to an upside surprise in the preliminary December national level inflation release in the afternoon.
- Having apparently confirmed the trend seen in solid Spanish and Portuguese data last week, inflation breakevens rose (EUR 5Y5Y swap +2.9bp to the highest since mid-Nov at 2.08%), paring ECB cut pricing. Final Eurozone PMIs for December also saw upward revisions and firmer price pressures.
- Supply concerns also weighed on core FI, with UK, Austrian and German auctions Tuesday alongside an expected Belgian 10Y syndication.
- The German curve bear flattened, with the UK's lightly bear steepening.
- Periphery/semi-core spreads tightened, with OATs slightly outperforming in a partial reversal of late December's sell-off.
- Tuesday's early highlights include inflation data from Switzerland, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.3bps at 2.194%, 5-Yr is up 3.3bps at 2.263%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.447%, and 30-Yr is up 1bps at 2.663%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.1bps at 4.433%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 4.401%, 10-Yr is up 1.7bps at 4.61%, and 30-Yr is up 2.3bps at 5.179%.
- Italian BTP spread down 3.8bps at 112.5bps / French OAT down 5.0bps at 81.1bps
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence Remains Intact
Jan-06 19:10
- RES 4: 1.2874 High Nov 12
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2698 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2562 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2518 @ 18:29 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 1.2353 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 2024
- SUP 3: 1.2277 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 2023
The sharp sell-off in GBPUSD last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Monday’s strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2562, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 1.2353, the Jan 2 low.
STIR FUTURES: Buyer Red Mar'26 SOFR Includes Block
Jan-06 19:09
- +17,000 SFRH6 96.015 (-0.015) Block at 1402:11ET (DV01 $425k) with additional +20,000 on screen in the last few minutes. The Red Mar'26 trade 96.02 last
