OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Set for Weekly Losses

A new CNN survey has found that Americans are “not impressed” with Trump’s stewardship of the economy, “putting him underwater on the nation’s top issue even as he sees ratings among the best of his presidential career on other key priorities.”

• CNN notes: “As markets slide and investors worry in response to Trump’s trade policies, a 56% majority of the public disapproves of his handling of the economy, worse than at any point during his first term in office. By contrast, the 51% who now say they approve of his work on immigration – headlined by stricter enforcement efforts – is 7 points higher than at any point during his first term.”
• Morning Consult notes in a separate report: “Voters are roughly split on Trump’s handling of the economy and trade policy, marking double-digit declines in his net approval rating on those topics since he took office.”
• Morning Consult adds: “Just 19% of voters say Trump’s tariffs on America’s top trading partners are primarily about the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., which is the main reason he’s cited.”

Figure 1: "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling..."

Source: CNN

• Lower-than-expected US inflation data prints prompted an initial bout of US dollar weakness on Wednesday, with the USD index registering session lows in the immediate aftermath. However, this proved to be short-lived, as feedthrough to the Fed’s preferred PCE reading was seemingly less dovish than the headline readings, and the DXY took little time to fully reverse to the day’s strongest levels.
• A subsequent third swing lower for the greenback leaves the DXY close to unchanged levels as we approach the APAC crossover, with a lot of the action remaining in the equity space as the e-mini S&P 500 future posts a punchy 2.2% daily range.
• The main FX action was in USDJPY, which exhibited a 100 pip range within the short post-data timeframe, initially falling to 148.20 before surging to a high of 149.19, briefly extending the bounce from yesterday’s lows to 1.8%. Technically, a bear cycle remains in play for USDJPY, and that latest recovery appears corrective in nature. Spot has subsequently turned lower, and key short-term resistance remains unchanged further out at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
• A much more contained session for EURUSD, with the pair failing to punch above yesterday’s peak of 1.0947. It is worth noting the pair has completed its recovery to the US election related highs at 1.0937, with the bounce from last week’s lows totalling 5.55%. Given the severity of the moves and technicals now indicating an overbought condition, the potential for a pullback may be growing.
• The Canadian dollar is among the best performers in G10, following the Bank of Canada’s well forecast 25bp cut. The BOC said dangers from a U.S. trade war led it to cut borrowing costs for a seventh consecutive meeting, and expressed caution about further moves as the immediate hit to growth may be followed by unwelcome inflation. USDCAD is down 0.35% at 1.4380 and support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low.
• US PPI and jobless claims headline the economic calendar on Thursday.

• MNI: US FEB TREASURY BUDGET -$307.0B