OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Strengthen

Apr-02 18:43

US cracks have ended the day stronger. Gasoline cracks are boosted by an expected draw in stocks and diesel is supported by a rise in weekly demand, despite a marginal inventory build.

  • US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 26.06$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 25.68$/bbl
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Mar 28: Gasoline stocks -1,551 vs Exp -1,483, Implied mogas demand -148, Distillate stocks +264 vs Exp -573, Implied dist demand +43, Ref runs -192
  • The prompt ICE Gasoil time spread is finding some support today after falling to the narrowest since early January at $2/mt yesterday.
  • Bloomberg reports FERC is suspending a March tariff filing by Colonial Pipeline for seven months and conducting a hearing after refiners and trading houses protested proposed operational changes to the company’s 5,500-mile fuel network.
  • The Dangote refinery ramp up and removal of the West Africa export option with provide a natural cap for EBOB gasoline cracks from Q3 onwards, FGE said cited by Bloomberg.
  • Canada gasoline prices slide on removal of consumer carbon tax: Reuters. Patrick De Haan writes on X, “refinery issues in the US  are severe and basically overpowering the carbon tax pause.” “In time, relief will come.”
  • CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s state-owned refineries are expected to fall 3-4 percentage points on the month in April, according to OilChem
  • Total oil stocks in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone rose by 4.958m bbl, or 25.6%, in the week to March 31, according to Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) citing Platts data.

Historical bullets

US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Mar-03 18:40

RRP usage retreats by nearly 50% to $119.987B from $234.442B on Friday's month end. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.

reverse repo 03032025

US: Trump To Make "Investment Announcement" Shortly

Mar-03 18:31

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to make an “investment announcement” at the White House. LIVESTREAM

  • Trump is expected to announce a USD$100 billion investment from TSMC. See earlier bullet: US: Trump To Announce $100B TSMC Investment
  • Trump has previously appeared alongside CEOs of SoftBank, OpenAI, Apple, and DAMAC to announce private investment projects, touting them as wins for his administration’s business-friendly policies.
  • Trump may also highlight a recent decision by Honda to make its next Civic hybrid vehicle in the US rather than Mexico, with Reuters noting, “the move to make the model in the US would avoid potential tariffs on one of its top-selling car models.”

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support

Mar-03 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.2880 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
  • RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
  • PRICE: 1.2710 @ 16:23 GMT Mar 3 
  • SUP 1: 1.2538 50-day EMA     
  • SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
  • SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support  
  • SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3    

A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact - for now - and this suggests the latest pullback is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2538, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.