OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Diesel Cracks Supported
Jan-29 19:44
Diesel cracks found support today, supported by a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown last week after cold weather boosted demand. Gasoline cracks are on the rise despite stronger stock builds, boosted by signs of higher implied demand.
- US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 13.8$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 1.4$/bbl at 27.73$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jan 24: Gasoline stocks +2,957 vs Exp +349, Implied mogas demand +216, Distillate stocks -4,994 vs Exp -2,154, Implied dist demand +398, Ref runs -333
- Gasoline stocks increased to the highest since Feb 2024 amid higher imports, lower exports to offset an increase in implied demand. The four-week average implied gasoline demand edged higher to hold just above the previous five-year average.
- NWE gasoline cracks fell by over 50 cents to about $7.52/bbl on Wednesday as US gasoline inventories rose more than expected.
- Distillates stocks fell more than expected due to higher implied demand as both imports and exports fell on the week.
- Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery is contending with unreliable power supply, a permit filed with the government energy regulator shows, adding to the operational issues that have plagued the project.
- Spain’s Bilbao refinery will put crude unit 2 into operation Wednesday, once maintenance work concludes, Petronor said.
- Jizan’s refinery maintenance to hit road fuel and residual fuel supply across multiple regions in Q1, Vortexa said.
- Nigeria’s gasoline imports are heading for an eight-year low as the Dangote’s ramp-up pushes out foreign suppliers, Bloomberg reports.
- Total oil stocks in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone rose 17%, to 18.858m bbl in the week to Jan. 27, according to FOIZ.
- Full year cargo demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK)increased 11.3% on the year, according to IATA
- MNI Commodity Weekly:
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Fading Underlying Support
Dec-30 19:35
Decent SOFR & Treasury option flow leaned towards low delta put structures Monday, fading the bounce in underlying futures to mid-December levels. Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. this morning, levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.3bp (-28.8bp).
- SOFR Options
- Update, over +18,000 SFRZ5 95.00 puts 8.0 vs. 96.065/0.10%
- +2,500 SFRJ5/SFRM5 95.50/95.62/95.75 put fly strip, 5.25
- +2,500 SFRF5 95.75 puts 1.25 vs. 95.805/.05%
- Block, 15,000 SFRM5 96.125/96.62 call spds 4.5 over SFRM5 95.56 puts vs. 95.945/0.36%
- +6,000 SFRZ5 95.00 puts, 8.0 vs. 96.065/0.10%
- -3,000 2QG5 95.87/96.00/96.12 put trees 4.0, 2 legs over ref 96.025
- over +34,200 0QM5 96.37/97.00 call spds 6.5 over 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 96.02
- 3,800 SFRK5 96.06/96.25 call spds ref 95.945
- 2,500 SFRF5 95.75/95.87/96.00/96.12 call condors ref 95.825
- 2,500 0QH5 95.62 puts ref 96.015
- Treasury Options
- -10,000 TYH5 109 straddles, 209-211 ref 108-30.5
- 1,000 TYG5 106/107 4x3 put spds ref 108-12
- +10,000 wk2 TY 107/108 put spds, 8
- +5,000 wk3 FV 106.75 calls 2 over FVG5 107 calls vs. 106-11/0.05%
- 1,200 FVH5 105/107.5 strangles ref 106-08
- 3,800 Wednesday wkly 30Y 113/113.5 put spds
- 1,200 TYG5 107/108.25 put spds ref 108-19
USDJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
Dec-30 19:30
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.08 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 157.06 @ 16:10 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 155.89/155.01 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 153.11/150.90 50-day EMA / Low Dec 10
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
Prices slipped Monday, but an over-arching bullish condition remains. The breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 155.01, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Still Weaker But Well Off Lows
Dec-30 19:24
- Stocks remain weaker but are trading well off early session lows in late Monday trade - stocks have been gradually paring losses since this mornings better than expected pending home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and Dallas Fed Mfg (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) data.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 337.49 points (-0.79%) at 42655.64, S&P E-Minis down 54 points (-0.9%) at 5973, Nasdaq down 165.6 points (-0.8%) at 19557.58.
- Consumer Discretionary and Materials sectors continued to underperform in late trade, auto-related shares weighing on the former: Tractor Supply -2.79%, Tesla -1.98%, LKQ Inc -1.79% and O'Reilly Automotive -1.48%. Metals and mining shares weighed on the Materials sector: Albemarle -2.10%, Newmont Corp and Freeport-McMoRan both -1.5%, FMC Corp -1.49%.
- On the positive side, the Energy sector continued to outperform while Information Technology sector shares gained momentum. Oil $ gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices inched higher (WTI +0.33 at 70.95): EQT Corp +5.05%, Coterra Energy +4.22%, Devon Energy +2.76%.
- Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks buoyed the IT sector with Nvidia +1.68%, VeriSign +0.51% while Autodesk and Adobe both gained 0.05%.
- Reminder, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
