OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Cracks Climb
Mar-13 18:13
Gasoline is trading higher again today after EIA data showed a larger than expected draw in stocks yesterday. Diesel cracks are extending the losses seen yesterday on a drop in implied demand.
- US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 22.98$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 24.22$/bbl
- ARA oil product stockpiles according to Insights Global: Inventory type, latest level, weekly change (all in kmt) as follows: Gasoline: 1,510, -141, Naphtha: 433, +41, Gasoil: 2,273, -95, Fuel Oil: 1,206, -11, Jet Fuel: 849, +35
- Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote refinery will shut its 204k b/d gasoline making until for 30-day maintenance, IIR said, cited by Reuters.
- Delek’s 73,000 bpd Big Spring refinery in Texas reported equipment malfunction resulting in exceeding emissions quantity limits on Mar. 12, according to a TCEQ filing cited by Reuters.
- Issues at four California refineries are bullish for refined product prices, especially gasoline, Platts said.
- Med-Asia naphtha cargo flows are expected to rise in the short term, according to Sparta Commodities, cited by Bloomberg.
- China’s gasoline production is likely to post a palpable drop in March year on year, while demand is seen holding flat, OilChem said.
- China’s gasoline demand decline is seen accelerating in 2025-2026, according to OilChem/GL Consulting due to greater EV penetration.
- China’s clean fuel exports are expected to rise from March as domestic demand eases following the festival season, according to Vortexa.
- A second tanker under US sanctions may deliver a diesel cargo from Russia to Syria, Reuters reports citing LSEG data.
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Historical bullets
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction: 1.2b Stop
Feb-11 18:04
- Treasury futures bounce briefly but remain weaker after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMN8) 1.2bp stop, drawing 4.300% high yield vs. 4.312% WI; 2.79x bid-to-cover vs. 2.62x prior.
- Peripheral stats see indirect take-up climbs to 74.00% vs. 60.98% prior; direct bidder take-up 15.82% from 19.67% prior; primary dealer take-up 10.18% vs. 19.36% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for March 11.
FED: US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.300%; ALLOTMENT 41.59%
Feb-11 18:02
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.300%; ALLOTMENT 41.59%
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.18% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 15.82% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 74.00% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.79
EURUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
Feb-11 18:00
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 1.0435/42 50-day EMA / High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.0349 @ 16:09 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 and the bear trigger.,
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg
EURUSD prices are improving, but continue to trade below last week’s highs. Attention is on a bullish candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0435, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
