OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products Summary At European Close: Cracks Falls
Mar-07 16:23
Cracks are down on the day, having reversed earlier modest gains amidst sharp gains in crude.
- US ULSD crack down 0.6$/bbl at 26.2$/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 21.49$/bbl
- US 321 crack down 0.5$/bbl at 23.05$/bbl
- European ARA Gasoil stocks fell last week to the lowest since December but remain above the seasonal five year average, according to the latest Insights Global data cited by Bloomberg.
- The Pemex Dos Bocas refinery restarted between the end of February and early March and is currently processing 100kb/d of crude oil, Bloomberg said.
- Total transport turnover in China in January was up 15.9% year on year, according to CAAC data.
- Russia's seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gasoil exports fell 15% m/m in February to around 3.3m metric tons as ongoing drone strikes on refineries impacts infrastructure and production, according to Reuters.
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FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
Feb-05 16:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $594 MLN FROM $64.000 BLN TOTAL
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Further ERZ5 Upside Flow
Feb-05 16:02
ERZ5 98.1875/98.4375/98.6875 call fly vs. 97.50/97.25 put spread, paper paid 1.5 on 7.5K, buying the call spread.
BOE: Sellside analyst views for the rest of the year
Feb-05 16:01
- All the sellside previews that we read look for a 25bp cut this week.
- After February, the majority of analysts (18/21) look for the next cut to be in May. Deutsche Bank expect a longer pause to August while both Morgan Stanley and TD Securities both look for a March cut (while noting heightened risks of a delay).
- In terms of 2025 outlook, over 60% of analysts (13/21) expect 100bp of cuts across the year to 3.75%. Only NatWest Markets (4.00%) looks for fewer cuts (despite this being the closest forecast to market pricing). Most remaining analysts (6/21) are equally split between 3.50% and 3.25% (i.e. considerably larger number of cuts than markets price).
- In terms of terminal rate, the majority of analysts 17/21 (81%) have their base case in a 3.00-3.75% range, almost evenly split. Other than NatWest Markets (4.00%) other outliers are to the downside. The mean terminal rate is 3.27%.
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