OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rises
May-28 15:27
Oil markets have extended today’s gains, boosted by a slightly weaker USD and expectations that OPEC+ will rollover voluntary cuts, keeping a lid on supply.
- Brent JUL 24 up 1.1% at 83.99$/bbl
- Brent JUL 24-AUG 24 unchanged at 0.22$/bbl
- Barak Ravid at Axios reporting that Israel has submitted to Qatar, Egypt, and the US, "an official, written, and updated proposal regarding the Gaza hostage deal."
- Saudi Aramco may cut prices for most of its crude it sells to Asia in July – the first in 5-months according to Reuters sources.
- Mexico’s Pemex exported 681,000 bpd of crude in April – 31% lower y/y.
- Crude throughput at China’s refineries is unlikely to see a strong recovery in May after hitting a four-month low in April, according to Platts.
- Libya has revised down its planned crude exports for May to 1.1m b/d, according to Bloomberg, citing a loading programme.
- Russia’s seaborne crude exports have slipped back ahead of the latest OPEC+ meeting as the group wrestles with Russia’s confusing commitments to the group since the Ukraine invasion.
- India’s Reliance, which operates one of the world's largest refining complexes, has signed a one-year deal with Russia’s Rosneft for at least 3m bbl/month of Urals crude to be paid in roubles, Reuters said.
- Nigeria plans to export 92k b/d of Amenam crude in July, near steady on the 95k b/d of exports for June, according to a loading programme seen by Bloomberg.
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Macro Since March FOMC - Growth: Firmer Details Behind Q1 Miss
Apr-26 19:31
[The below is an excerpt from the full MNI Fed Preview - full note here]
- Real GDP was softer than expected in advance Q1 data at 1.6% (cons 2.5) after 3.4% in Q4.
- Consumer spending growth was also softer than expected at 2.5% (cons 3.0) but beyond that the downside surprises were from a larger than expected drag from net exports, courtesy of stronger imports, and changes in inventories.
- The upshot is that final domestic demand still provided a solid contribution to real GDP growth of 2.8pps after two quarters averaging 3.6pps.
- Combined with a rebound in import strength, it’s another quarter that doesn’t look even close to being recessionary and, as above, it’s come with a surprise uplift in core inflation.
- Within the details, consumption has seen unusual divergence. Goods consumption is indicated particularly weak in Q1 at -0.4% considering the strength in the retail sales control group (the latest two monthly reports having helped push out Fed rate cut expectations), but services consumption accelerated to its strongest quarter since 3Q21 at +4.0%. That could further offer further concerns about the persistence of service price inflation in the months ahead.
US TSYS: PCE Data Less Hawkish in Light of Thu's Q1 Beat, Supercore Tempers Bid
Apr-26 19:14
- Treasuries looked to finish mostly higher Friday, curves flatter with the short end mildly weaker (2s10s -3.478 at -33.043). Intermediates trade near the middle of this morning's wide post-data range, Jun'24 10Y +6.5 at 107-18 (107-09L/107-27.5H).
- Treasury futures trade higher after the latest PCE data comes out in-line to slightly higher -- deemed less hawkish in light of Thursday's Q1 beat:
- PCE Deflator MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3%), YoY (2.7% vs. 2.6% est, 2.5% prior)
- PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (2.8% vs. 2.7% est, 2.8% prior).
- Treasuries support receded after a very strong Supercore: 0.39% M/M in Mar after 0.19 (initial 0.18) in Feb and 0.75 (initial 0.66) in Jan).
- Meanwhile, Personal Income (0.5% vs. 0.5% est, 0.3% prior), Personal Spending (0.8% vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prior), Real Personal Spending (0.5% vs. 0.3% est, 0.4% prior).
- Treasury futures held gains after the latest University of Michigan data: Sentiment (77.2 vs. 77.9 est), Current Conditions (79.0 vs. 79.3 prior), 1 Yr Inflation (3.2% vs. 3.1% prior), 5-10 Yr Inflation unchanged at 3.0% vs. 3.0% est.
- Focus turns to next week's FOMC policy annc on Wednesday, followed by the latest employment data next Friday.
CANADA: USDCAD Back To Pre-PCE Levels
Apr-26 19:01
- USDCAD has drifted back below 1.3660 from its earlier high of 1.3696, with the latest move back to pre-PCE levels coming with a broader step lower for the USD.
- The technical trend direction just about remains higher with declines deemed corrective, but the pair is increasingly testing this having declined ~100 pips over the week.
- Support is seen at the 1.3636 touched fractionally after the PCE release (after 1.3637 overnight) before a more notable 1.3604 (50-day EMA), whilst resistance is seen at 1.3763 (Apr 22 high).
- As noted above, yield differentials have slipped a little today but still hold a solid move away from historical lows, whilst BoC pricing has shifted to closer to a 50/50 chance of a June cut.
Moving closer to the 50-day EMA (note that support level given in text is for last close)Source: Bloomberg
