BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

• Treasury futures take another leg off lows after ADP private jobs data comes out lower than expected. Tsys had bounced off earlier lows after dovish Fed Gov Waller statements re: rate cuts and tariffs.
• The Mar'25 10Y contract trades -3 at 108-02.5 after breaching round number support to 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield currently at 4.0755 +.0205 after tapping 4.7280% high, 2s10s at 41.652 +2.680.

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.8400 High Nov 5   
• RES 2: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8348/56 Intraday high / High Nov 27  
• PRICE: 0.8338 @ 13:14 GMT Jan 9
• SUP 1: 0.8284 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8263/23 Low Dec 31 / 19
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP has traded sharply higher today and in the process breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311. The cross is also through the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. A continuation of the bull leg would expose 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and the next important resistance. Initial support lies at 0.8284, today’s intraday low.

• Gov. Waller (permanent voter) seeing more rate cuts as appropriate has seen Fed Funds implied rates dip 1-2bps across the near-term path.
• In doing so, it’s reversed the impact from yesterday’s ISM services beat (primarily on its particularly strong prices paid component) with help from President-elect Trump yesterday also wanting to see lower rates.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Jan, 10.3bp Mar, 15.5bp May, 25bp Jun, 28bp Jul and 38bp Dec.