GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

• -5,000 FVH5 105-13.5, sell through 105-13.75 post time bid at 1023:37ET, DV01 $207,000. The 5Y contract trades 105-13.25 last

Premier of the Canadian province of Alberta Danielle Smith has been talking to the media after a meeting between her and US President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Smith says Canada "should have prepared [for the likelihood] that tariffs are coming." Says Canada "will have to respond if there is a 25% tariff". Says she is "not expecting any exemptions from tariffs." Smith's comments come 

• After the meeting, Smith said “We had a friendly and constructive conversation during which I emphasized the mutual importance of the U.S. – Canadian energy relationship, and specifically, how hundreds of thousands of American jobs are supported by energy exports from Alberta,” Speaking to CBC, Smith says that "An oil embargo would risk a national unity crisis".
• Foreign Minister Melanie Joly is expected in Washington, D.C., this week in an effort to dissuade Trump team officials from imposing tariffs. However, it remains to be seen how effective the overtures from Trudeau gov't ministers will be given the comments directed towards the outgoing PM from the incoming president in recent weeks.
• With a change in leadership coming in Ottawa in March, and the strong probability of a snap general election shortly after, officials from the main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (or regional parties supportive of the CPC like Smith's United Conservative Party) could end up as more effective interlocutors with the Trump administration given that opinion polls show the party as strong favourites to win a majority and the closer ideological stances between the CPC and Trump's Republican party. 

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 5966.50 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance          
• PRICE: 5816.50 @ 14:41 GMT Jan 13 
• SUP 1: 5809.00 Intraday low       
• SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the contract is trading lower today. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirms the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5996.50, the 50-day EMA.