GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Ahead of what is being seen as an important milestone for the gov't in the form of the Spring Statement, the latest opinion polling shows the governing centre-left Labour party, the main opposition centre-right Conservatives, and the right-wing populist Reform UK essentially neck and neck. Local elections take place in areas of England on 1 May, while a parliamentary by-election is due to be called in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, meaning there is greater focus on party polling than would usually be the case mid-parliament. 

• Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is seen to be on thin ice, and a poor reaction to the Spring Statement evidenced in any further declines in support for Labour could risk her position.
• The Runcorn and Helsby by-election is seen as a straight contest between Labour and Reform UK. Labour won the seat with a 14.6k majority in 2024, but the latest polling shows Reform UK as narrow favourites. Mid-parliament by-election losses for incumbent gov'ts are not unusual.
• However, if this is combined with a poor performance by Labour in the May local elections put more pressure on the gov't regarding cuts. The last time the local councils voting in May held elections was 2021, at the height of then-PM Boris Johnson's popularity amid the release of a COVID-19 vaccine.
• As such, Labour would usually expect to pick up seats following the Conservatives' drop in support. However, polling indicates Reform UK will make significant gains with both the Conservatives and Labour losing out. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

Source: YouGov, Survation, MoreinCommon, Techne, Opinium, Find Out Now, Deltapoll, JL Partners, BMG, Lord Ashcroft Polls, We Think, Stonehaven, MNI. N.b. First data point indicates % support in 2024 general election. 

SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME

• 1M 4.32719 0.00556
• 3M 4.30267 -0.00014
• 6M 4.22358 0.00791
• 12M 4.06494 0.00862