OIL: OPEC Releases New Compensation Plan for Overproducers

Technical conditions in key SEK crosses remain bearish. Markets have had little reason to reassess February's krona strength in the last two sessions, with European equities still performing strongly and the Swedish January final inflation report exposing broad-based price pressures to start the year.

• EURSEK is on track for an 11th downward session in the last 12, now 2.6% below the Jan 31 close. The 14-day RSI is off multi-year lows, but still lies in oversold territory. Initial support is the June 20 low at 11.1824, before the Feb 22 2024 low at 11.1385.
• NOKSEK is consolidating below the December 20 low at 0.9625, with the Sep 26 low at 0.9572 the next key support.
• The 50% retracement of the September to January bull leg at 10.6811 has contained downside in USDSEK the last three sessions. Clustered resistance is seen around the Feb 13 high at 10.8877 and the 20-day EMA at 10.9087, with shallower rallies considered corrective.
• Riksbank First Deputy Governor Breman will speak on Thursday, but SEK crosses may be more sensitive to swings in global risk sentiment (e.g. Russia/Ukraine peace prospects and ad hoc tariff-related headline flow from the US) and the Eurozone flash PMI on Friday.

• EUR/USD: $1.0500(E1.6bln)
• USD/JPY: Y152.00($1.3bln), Y152.50($649mln), Y155.00-20($1.7bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6325(A$558mln), $0.6520(A$880mln)
• NZD/USD: $0.5450(N$1.7bln), $0.5800(N$865mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.1800($600mln), Cny7.3400($1.2bln)

The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP1.6bln of the 1.125% Sep-35 linker (ISIN: GB00BT7HZZ68) at its auction next Tuesday, February 25.