GILTS: Opening calls

Estox 50: -0.33%, Dax: -0.15%, CAC: -0.41%, FTSE -0.58%, SMI -0.34%.

• RES 4: 0.6733 High Oct 13  
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger              
• RES 2: 0.6531 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.6443 20-day EMA5
• PRICE: 0.6352 @ 07:53 GMT Dec 17
• SUP 1: 0.6337 Low Dec 11
• SUP 3: 0.6300 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and last week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6443, the 20-day EMA.

This morning's UK labour market data had a light hawkish impact on EUR rates, but ECB-dated OIS continue to price 118bps of easing through the end of next year.

• OIS more than fully price 25bp cuts through the January and March gatherings, with 23.5bps of sequential cuts also priced through April.
• Euribor futures are flat to -2.5 ticks through the blues.
• Yesterday afternoon, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel echoed the broader Governing Council view that price stability is within reach and a further dialling back of policy restriction is towards neutral is appropriate.
• However, there were still some hawkish strands in her speech, with little indication that she would support cutting rates into accommodative territory i.e. below neutral.
• Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by the German IFO survey, while monthly Eurozone trade data may also be of interest.
• The ECB’s Kazimir and Rehn are scheduled to speak this morning.