HUNGARY: Orban Affirms Stance Against Joint EU Defence Financing

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance   
• RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7                                 
• PRICE: $31.902 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 12   
• SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA        
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

Key resistance in Silver at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.900, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

• EUR Benchmark (MNI expects a E8-10bln size) of the new May-56 OAT
• Guidance: FRTR 3.25% 25/05/55 (MID) + 7bps area
• Issuer: Republic of France
• Ratings: Aa3 (Moody’s Stable)/AA- (S&P Stable)/AA- (Fitch Negative)/AAh (DBRS Stable)
• Format: OAT (in dematerialised book entry form), RegS Cat 1, 144A eligible, CACs
• Maturity: 25 May 2056
• Settlement: 19 February 2025 (T+5)
• Coupon: Fixed, annual ACT/ACT, payable each 25 May. Full first coupon on 25 May 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (DM and B&D) / Citi / DB / JPM / SG
• Timing: Books open, today's business

• RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003  
• RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
• RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3    
• PRICE: 1.4291 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11

USDCAD is trading in a tight range and closer to its recent lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. The Feb 3 cycle high reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.