STIR: Over 85bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End After Soft CPI

Slovakia, Finland, Germany, Spain, France and Ireland are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E26.4bln, vs E32.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Today, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction to sell the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
• Tomorrow, Finland will hold a conventional auction to a sell combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104) and the 2.75% Apr-38 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000546528).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction to sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).

Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E19.3bln in first round operations, down from E24.0bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will selll E3bln of the new 12-month Mar 18, 2026 Bubill
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will issue E1.0-1.5bln of the 2-month May 28, 2025 DTC and E1.0-1.5bln of the 5-month Aug 28, 2025 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will come to the market to sell a combined E8.0bln of the 14/25/27/49-week BTFs: E3.0-3.4bln of the new 14-week Jun 25, 2025 BTF, E0.5-0.9bln of the 25-week Sep 10, 2025 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 27-week Sep 24, 2025 BTF and E1.3-1.7bln of the 49-week Feb 25, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Sep 18, 2025 bills
• On Wednesday, Portugal will issue E1.0-1.25bln of the new 12-month Mar 20, 2026 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Jun 6, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Sep 5, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5     
• RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg               
• PRICE: 106.680 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 17    
• SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4  
• SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4 
• SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4   

A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact with price still trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend is oversold and the latest bounce is allowing this to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.