CAD: Paring losses
* A broader bid in the CAD as it unwinds some of the Tariffs Risks weakness. * The Currency leads ag...
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 110-00 High Feb 7
- PRICE: 109-05 @ 11:27 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-10+. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on a climb above the 110-00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.
STIR: Short Setting Most Prominent In SOFR Futures Post-NFP
OI data suggests that net short setting provided the dominant positioning theme as SOFR futures adjusted to Friday’s NFP data and Fedspeak
- Net long cover was seemingly more prominent in at least 2 of the front 4 contracts before short setting moved to the fore further out the strip (dominating SFRM6 through SFRU8).
| 07-Feb-25 | 06-Feb-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,058,626 | 1,062,530 | -3,904 | Whites | -13,892 |
SFRH5 | 1,215,336 | 1,202,229 | +13,107 | Reds | +55,636 |
SFRM5 | 1,081,826 | 1,091,273 | -9,447 | Greens | +30,575 |
SFRU5 | 801,006 | 814,654 | -13,648 | Blues | +15,633 |
SFRZ5 | 972,462 | 937,772 | +34,690 |
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SFRH6 | 667,804 | 672,306 | -4,502 |
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SFRM6 | 632,918 | 623,898 | +9,020 |
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SFRU6 | 595,284 | 578,856 | +16,428 |
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SFRZ6 | 680,698 | 679,926 | +772 |
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SFRH7 | 477,958 | 468,182 | +9,776 |
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SFRM7 | 417,532 | 409,719 | +7,813 |
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SFRU7 | 294,700 | 282,486 | +12,214 |
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SFRZ7 | 283,878 | 273,435 | +10,443 |
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SFRH8 | 217,500 | 216,968 | +532 |
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SFRM8 | 186,037 | 182,099 | +3,938 |
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SFRU8 | 119,596 | 118,876 | +720 |
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: March'25/April'25 10Y Ratio Put Spread
- Large 10Y ratio put spread blocked at 0601:38ET:
- +10,000 TYH5 107.5 puts, 3.0 w/ +30,000 TYH5108.5 puts, 13, 42 db for the strip vs.
- -30,000 TYJ5 107.5/108.5 put spds, 20, 18 net package
