AMERICAS OIL: PBF TORRANCE REFINERY HAS AN UNPLANNED FLARE EVENT

Mixed trade on net with SOFR options leaning toward puts as underlying futures scaling off of this morning's knee-jerk rally, huge Mar'25 10Y call buying: nearly 130,000 108.5 OTM calls. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to retreat, current vs. late Friday levels* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 at -5.8bp (-4.9bp), May'25 -10.2bp (-9bp), Jun'25 -17.9bp (-16.5bp), Jul'25 at -21.2bp (-18.7bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +8,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.37/96.87 call flys 7.0 ref 95.895
  • -8,000 0QG5 95.62/96.12 strangle 11.5-11.0 ref 95.88
  • +3,000 SFRM5 95.81/95.93/96.18 2x3x1 call flys 3.0 ref 95.835
  • +15,000 0QK5 94.75/95.00 put spds, 2.0 vs. 95.905/0.05%
  • +10,000 SFRU5 95.50/95.75/96.00 put flys, 6.5
  • +15,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62/95.87 put flys, 5.5-5.75 ref 95.895
  • +5,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.31 call spds 8.0 ref 95.835
  • +4,000 SFRG5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys 3.0 ref 95.74
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62/95.87 put flys 5.5 ref 95.875
  • 8,000 SFRZ5 96.50/97.50 call spds 
  • 1,500 SFRH5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys ref 95.735
  • 10,800 SFRG5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 95.735
  • 3,200 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.88 broken put condors
  • 3,200 SFRU5 95.87 puts vs. 95.87/96.12 call spds 
  • 7,000 SFRJ5 95.50/95.56 put spds ref 95.835
  • 2,000 SFRM5 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 95.835
  • -3,500 SFRU5 95.00/95.75 2x1 put spds, 12.0 ref 95.885
• Treasury Options:
  • Update: over 128,600 TYH5 108.5 calls 27-29
  • 2,500 TYG5 109.25/110.75/111 broken call trees
  • Another +38,000 TYH5 108.5 calls, 27 ref 107-09 - puts total volume over 109.7k
  • 5,600 TYG5 108 calls, 13 ref 107-09.5, total volume over 26k
  • +50,000 TYH5 108.5 calls, 27 vs. 107-08.5/0.31%, total volume just over 57,000 - exceeding open interest of
  • 1,317 coming into the session
  • 2,000 USH5 115/117 call spds 12 ref 
  • over 10,800 Wednesday wkly 10Y 106.75 puts, 4 ref 107-10
  • 1,100 USJ5 110/112/114 put flys
  • 2,250 FVG5 106.25/106.75/107.50 broken call flys
  • 2,000 TYJ5 107/107.5 put spds ref 107-14
  • 4,500 TYG5 107 puts
  • +10,000 TYG5 108 calls, 16 vs. 107-15/0.32%

• RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 1.2198@ 19:56 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 
• SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0361 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0300 @ 19:52 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13  
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The pair also traded lower Monday. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high. The latest bounce is considered corrective.