AMERICAS OIL: Petroecuador Shuts SOTE Pipeline and Refinery

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 MNI looks ahead to talks among senior EU officials on defence finance options. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is unrevised at a rounded -1.8% annualized for Q1 from -1.8% with the Mar 18 update (technically revised down from -1.76% to -1.81%).
• The first formal estimate of the gold-adjusted figure came in at +0.2%, maintaining a 2pp gap seen in LinkedIn estimates from GDPNow’s Higgins earlier in the month as we suspected would be the case.
• A reminder that final sales to domestic purchasers are seen adding 1.55pps to GDP growth, no way near the deterioration seen in tracked GDP growth but still a notable moderation after a strong 3.0pp in Q4 and a particularly firm 3.7pp in Q3.
• The private version of this domestic demand measure tells a similar story, currently tracking a 1.2pp contribution after 2.6pp in Q4 and 2.9pp in Q3.
• Tomorrow’s advance trade data can give an idea of latest gold adjustment tweaks but we don’t think they can be actually factored into calculations until the full release on Apr 3.
• The next GDPNow update will be on Fri, Mar 28.
• As noted earlier, looking through some of these impacts rather than the more mechanical Atlanta Fed GDPNow approach, GS for example see Q1 real GDP tracking at 1.3% annualized. That’s still a sizeable moderation from the 2.35% in Q4 and 3.1% in Q3.