CONSUMER STAPLES: Phillip Morris; S&P moves to positive outlook

• RES 4: 112-13  1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 3: 112-10  2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 112-02  1.382 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 1: 112-01  High Mar 4
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-18 @ 16:58 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 110-00   Low Feb 28 / High Feb 7 and recent breakout point        
• SUP 2: 109-19   50-day EMA and a key near-term support 
• SUP 3: 108-21   Low Feb 19 
• SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger  

Treasury futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Tuesday, reinforcing the current bullish condition. The contract has pierced resistance at 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. This paves the way for an extension towards 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective and allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.

• Total 17,500 SFRZ5 96.12/96.50 3x2 put spds Blocked, 18.5 net ref 96.44 to -.435
• Elsewhere: +6,500 0QH5 97.12/97.62 call spds, 1.0 vs. 96.525/0.05%
• -15,000 SFRU5 96.25 calls, 27.0

• Stocks continued to trade weaker at the start of the global trade war. Sell first, ask questions later as markets have yet to experience the impact of 25% US import tariffs against Canada & Mexico, 20% on China, not to mention agriculture products starting April 2.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 686.31 points (-1.59%) at 42503.93 (lowest since mid-Jan'25), S&P E-Minis down 86.75 points (-1.48%) at 5774.5 (lowest since mid-Sep'24), Nasdaq down 205.3 points (-1.1%) at 18144.75 (lowest since early Oct'24).
• Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors lead the broad based, carry over decline: banks and services led laggers in the former with Citigroup -7.52%, Bank of America -7.16%, Discover Financial Services -6.85%, Capital One -6.77%, KeyCorp -6.65% and Wells Fargo -6.65%.
• Aside from cruise lines whose stocks traded -7.0-7.5%, Best Buy fell 14.01% despite beating earnings estimates as tariffs are "highly likely" to raise costs BBY's CEO said. Meanwhile, Tesla fell -6.67% and GM declined 4.2%.
• On the positive side, Health Care and Consumer Staples resisted the sell-off. Molina Healthcare +3.42%, STERIS +2.60%, UnitedHealth Group +2.18% and Elevance Health +2.05% buoyed the Health Care Sector, while Walgreens Boots Alliance +6.09%, Hershey +2.34% and Dollar General +2.14% underpinned the Consumer Staples sector.
• Earnings expected after the close include: Crowdstrike Holdings, Ross Stores, Foot Locker, Campbell's, Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman Corp, Marvell Technology and Victoria's Secret.