EURUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 
• SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.

• RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6        
• RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13   
• RES 2: 117.584 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.090 High Jan 9                            
• PRICE: 116.560 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 14  
• SUP 1: 116.350 Low Jan 13               
• SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont)  
• SUP 3: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)      

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break strengthens the current downtrend and sights are on 116.320 next, the Jul 22 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.584, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0361 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0244 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13  
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The pair also traded lower Monday. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high.