UKRAINE: PM Confirms Minerals Deal Agreement w/US
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal has given further details on the minerals agreement reached with the US that could act as a precursor to Kyiv becoming more involved in ceasefire talks. Shmyhal confirms that the final version of a deal to provide US access to critical mineral resource deposits in Ukraine has been reached.
- The PM says that Ukraine would not sign an agreement without security guarantees: “We do not consider signing any agreements without security guarantees… This agreement is directly tied to security guarantees. Neither the President of Ukraine nor the government of Ukraine will consider this agreement and its signing separately from security guarantees for Ukraine." Claims that provisions in the agreement say the US supports "Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees to build a lasting peace."
- Shmyhal does not offer any concrete details on 'security guarantees'. A 'US backstop' has been talked up by Kyiv as well as the UK gov't, but the Trump administration has shown little willingness to countenance such a deployment.
- Shmyhal: "After the Ukrainian president and the US president agree on security guarantees, agree on how we tie this preliminary agreement to security guarantees from the United States for our country, in the presence of [both] presidents, a representative of the Ukrainian government will sign this preliminary agreement."
- Says that the agreement "envisions the creation of a joint investment fund." Ukraine will contribute 50% of "all proceeds received from the future monetisation of all relevant state-owned natural resource assets and relevant infrastructure" to a joint fund.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: DeepSeek Sell-Off Cemented, Linked Stocks Sit Sharply Lower Pre-Market
Pre-market weakness in both direct and indirectly linked AI names sticks into the cash open - as DeepSeek's success undermines the AI-driven US equity rally.
Pre-market, e-mini S&P off by 2.3%, NASDAQ futs off 3.9%:
- Nvidia shares lower by 11.3%(earnings Feb 26th)
- Meta Platforms lower by 3.8% (earnings on Wednesday)
- Microsoft lower by 6.0% (earnings on Wednesday)
- Tesla lower by 4.3% (earnings on Wednesday)
That primes markets to shed over $700bln in market cap at the open across those four stocks alone. Why is Deepseek different? Deepseek's open-source, free-to-play approach twinned with highly regarded efficiency and accuracy undermines not only the revenue-generating capacity of models produced by OpenAI, Alphabet, Meta and others - but also the significant levels of investment in AI from US firms over the past five years. It also shows the ability of Chinese firms to skirt chip sanctions targeted at limiting their AI capacity.
More here: https://www.mnimarkets.com/articles/deepseek-why-is-this-app-undermining-markets-1737968390827
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Jan28 $1.0400(E1.0bln), $1.0500(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Jan29 Y155.00($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Jan28 $0.6300(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: Jan29 C$1.4500($1.1bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Short-Term Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
- In the FI space, the pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appears corrective and a short-term bull cycle is in play for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.15, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is at 130.28, the Jan 15 low. Initial support lies at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.
- The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However, recent gains continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on 92.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial support is at 91.10, the Jan 20 low.
