THAILAND: PM Survives No-Confidence Vote Amid Accusations Of Undue Influence

UBS expect “the UK index to extend by ~0.05yr at month-end, which is slightly higher than the historical 3-year average end-Feb extension of ~0.03yr. The UK inflation-linked index is expected to contract at the end of this month.”

Gilts remain locked in a narrow range, with offshore cues (Friday’s late rally in wider core global FI markets & feedthrough from the German election) mostly offsetting thus far.

• Futures continue to hover around 92.50, after stabilising around that level shortly after the open.
• The bullish technical cycle in the contract remains intact, although it has moderated.
• Initial resistance located at the 50-day EMA (92.83), while initial support comes in at the Feb 20 low (91.78).
• Yields ~1bp lower across the curve.
• Expect futures roll activity to continue to dominate ahead of Thursday’s first notice for H5, with estimates pointing to just over 26% roll completion at present.
• Comments from BoE’s Ramsden (13:15 GMT) and Dhingra (18:00 GMT) are due later today, with plenty of BoE-speak due throughout the week.
• BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing 52.5bp of cuts through year-end.