POWER: Poland’s April Edges Down

Mar-05 14:15

Poland’s April edged down amid slight price falls of European coal and Emissions, with downward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw limiting losses. Spot prices could rise higher on 7 March as wind is only expected at an 8% load factor.

 

  • Poland’s April baseload power settled at PLN415.65/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN415.99/MWh on 4 March, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
  • The contract settled just above its settlement on 29 January at PLN415.50/MWh.
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 68.35 EUR/MT
  • Rotterdam Coal APR 25 down 0.7% at 95.1 USD/MT
  • The April contract traded 49 times in 50 lots from 54 lots exchanged in the previous session.
  • The contract opened at PLN415/MWh before dropping to a daily low of PLN413/MWh and climbing to a daily high of PLN418/MWh. The contract ended the session at PLN414/MWh.
  • Average temperatures in Warsaw were mostly revised down over 6-10 March by as much as 0.7C and will begin cooling from 10 March and drop below the seasonal average on 14 March.
  • Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded to PLN348.06/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN278.39/MWh for Wednesday as Polish wind is expected at a 44% load factor tomorrow from 74% today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at an 8% load factor on 7 March (Fri) – which could support prices.









     

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Historical bullets

GILTS: /SWAPS: BofA Tweak Recommendations Ahead Of BoE

Feb-03 14:11

Bank of America outline a couple of trades “for those keen to continue the curve steepening theme - perhaps wishing to position for the possibility that the market focuses on the BoE's 2y- and 3y-ahead inflation forecasts next week (which we expect to be lowered).” 

  • They maintain their 3s5s7s swap fly position (targeting a move to 10bp, stop set at -21bp).
  • Elsewhere, they still “think 5-Year real rates need to be higher than priced to combat inflation but now see that being delivered via lower-than-priced inflation.” As a result, they have switched their “bearish real rate bias into a bearish RPI view in the 5-Year area.”

USD: Grassely 'Pleads' For Potash Exemption From Canada Tariffs

Feb-03 14:09

Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), one of the senior-most members of the Senate Republican conference, has "pleaded" with President Donald Trump to exempt potash from tariffs levied on imports from Canada. 

  • Grassley said in a message on X: "Biden inflation increase the input cost to farming by 20% incl particularly high prices on fertilizer. So I plead w President Trump to exempt potash from the tariff because family farmers get most of our potash from Canada"
  • The message is a sign that Trump's tariff agenda may burn significant political capital with Republicans from agricultural and manufacturing states, likely to bear the brunt of Trump's tariffs and retaliatory actions from targetted countries.  
  • Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a regular adversary of Trump, said on Sunday: “[Tariffs] will drive the cost of everything up. In other words, it will be paid for by American consumers. Why would you want to get in a fight with your allies over this?”
  • Axios notes that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said in August that he is against "across-the-board tariffs” but is open to the selective use of tariffs.
  • As a reminder, the power of the executive is limited. For durable legislative change, Trump needs to keep Republican lawmakers onside. Any major revolt from agricultural state Republicans will put the entire GOP agenda at risk.

STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate

Feb-03 14:07
  • FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
    • Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $83B
    • Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $227B
  • Earlier Repo Reference Rates
    • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.38% (+0.02), volume: $2.533T
    • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.34% (+0.00), volume: $918B
    • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.34% (+0.00), volume: $892B
    • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)