POWER: Poland’s April Edges Up, Spot to Be Lifted for 12 Feb

Poland’s April edged higher, supported by price increases in European coal and emissions. However, above-seasonal average temperatures in Warsaw next week kept gains capped. Spot prices are likely to be elevated for 12 February delivery as wind is only expected at a 3% load factor.

• Poland’s April baseload power settled at PLN415.45/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN415/MWh on 7 March, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• Despite the rebound, the contract has been on a general downward trend since 10 February peak.
• EUA DEC 25 up 0.4% at 68.89 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal APR 25 up 4.1% at 100.1 USD/MT
• The April contract traded 24 times in 24 lots from 35 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN417/MWh – the high for the day – before dropping to PLN416/MWh and ending the session at a daily low of PLN414/MWh towards the end of the session.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw were higher on 14 March by as much as 1.7C but are still expected to be on a general downward trend until 18 March before rebounding over 19-24 March to reach as high as 8.7C.
• Closer in, the day-ahead continued to climb, reaching a seven-day high of PLN528.27/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN479.91/MWh for Monday as Polish wind is expected at an 11% load factor tomorrow from 15% today.
• An unplanned outage 228MW unit 2 at the 1.8GW Kozienice 1 coal plant today was also supportive, with the unit disconnected until 14 March.
• Additionally, the 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant is still expected to be fully offline until 17 March.

• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 3% load factor on 12 March (Wed) – which could see prices rise further.