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EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 1: 160.88/161.19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
- PRICE: 158.44 @ 08:00 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Low Feb 11 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY has pulled back from its recent high. For now, resistance at 160.88, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
STIR: Euribor Futures Look Through Trump Tariff Threats and UK CPI Data
Euribor futures have been happy to look through US President Trump’s latest tariff threats, now flat to -2.0 ticks through the blues. There was limited impact from the mixed UK CPI data.
- Desks note that early Euribor flow is likely a liquidation: ERM5 97.9375c, sold at 4.75 in 10k (ref 97.825)
- ECB-dated OIS price 76bps of easing through year-end
- At yesterday’s MNI event, ECB’s Cipollone cemented his status as one of the more dovish members of the Executive Board. He said that rate cuts should take into account the tightening impact of QT, while expressing worries about the growth outlook and the risk of China exporting disinflation to the Eurozone in response to US tariffs.
- ECB dove Panetta has expressed similar concerns around the growth outlook in comments this morning.
- Today’s regional calendar includes Eurozone December current account data, alongside preliminary Q4 labour cost and vacancy data.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.428 | -23.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.273 | -39.3 |
| Jun-25 | 2.104 | -56.2 |
| Jul-25 | 2.046 | -62.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.968 | -69.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.946 | -72.0 |
| Dec-25 | 1.909 | -75.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.908 | -75.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.24/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 151.66 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY continues to trade below the Feb 12 high. Recent weakness highlights that - for now - a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 154.24, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
