POWER: Poland's March Climbs 8.1% On Week
Jan-31 15:15
Poland’s March climbed to a fresh high to be around 8.1% up on the week as gains in EU ETS and European coal have followed similar on-week increases. Looking ahead, the unplanned outage at a 566MW coal unit has been extended to 4 Feb, with wind anticipated at just 3-7% load factors over 3-6 Feb likely lifting spot prices higher on the week.
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN445.99/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN433.86/MWh on 30 January, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- This is up from its settlement on 24 January (last week Friday) at PLN412.50/MWh.
- The contract also reached a fresh all-time high.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.9% at 84.23 EUR/MT.
- Rotterdam Coal FEB 25 up 1.4% at 110.7 USD/MT at 14:57 GMT.
- The March contract traded 14 times in 18 lots from 17 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN441.50/MWh – the daily low – before climbing to a daily high of PLN448/MWh and dropping slightly at the end of the session to be at PLN446/MWh.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are now expected to flip below the norm on 8 February and remain below until 14 February. However, temps will flip back above around 21 February and be higher until mid-March.
- Closer in, the day-ahead dropped on the day to PLN560.66/MWh for Saturday delivery from PLN575.74/MWh for Friday amid typically lower weekend demand.
- However, wind is expected at a 24% load factor tomorrow from a 32% load factor today – likely limiting losses.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be between 3-7% load factors over 3-6 February (Mon-Thur) – likely keeping prices elevated, coupled with works at the 834MW Jaworzno 2 B7 coal plant until 3 February.
And Poland’s 566MW unit 10 at its 2.2GW Kozienice 2 coal plant has extended its unplanned outage to 4 February from 1 February, latest Remit data show.
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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
