POWER:  Poland's March Drops 6.5% Lower On Week, Volatility Expected Next Week

• The European Bank Index (SX7E) continues to rally, now up 1.39%,  the index still trades at its highest level since 2015.
• Aside from the Psychological 160.00 mark, next longer term upside area of interest would come at 163.34, this was the 2014 high, and the highest printed level since July 2011.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):

Moderate amount of call & put position unwinds since the CPI-tied rally in the underlying:

• Block, -2,500 0QG5/0QH5 96.12/96.37 2x3 call spd spds, 0.0 net/Feb over
• -5,000 2QM5 94.75 puts, 3.5 ref 95.87
• +5,000 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put tree, 5.5 ref 95.91
• +5,000 SFRU5 96.25/97.00/97.25 call flys, 4.25 ref 95.985
• -15,000 SFRH5 95.75/95.93 call spds, 4.25 vs. 95.87/0.39%
• -12,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.87 put spds w/ 95.68/95.93 put spd strip, 25.75 cr ref 95.92

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 5987.43 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance          
• PRICE: 5978.00 @ 14:56 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13        
• SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. However, today’s gains have exposed resistance at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. The average marks an important short-term pivot level and a clear break would signal a possible reversal. This would open 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.