POWER: Poland’s March Drops at Fastest Rate Since Liquid

Poland’s March declined sharply by around 4.7% from the previous session to decline for its third consecutive session as EU ETS prices continued to fall, with European coal costs trading in the red. Additionally, average temperatures in Warsaw are anticipated to warm quicker than previously anticipated – potentially reducing pressure on power demand.

• Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN447.51/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN469.78/MWh on 12 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• The contract fell to its lowest settlement since 4 February at PLN445.20/MWh.
• EUA DEC 25 down 2.2% at 78.55 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 1.5% at 100.7 USD/MT
• The March contract traded 25 times in 29 lots from 9 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN460/MWh – the high for the day – before steadily dropping to a daily low of PLN444/MWh at the end of the session.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw are now expected to be on a general upward trend from 20 February, with temps flipping above the 30-year norm on 22 February to reach as high as 6.3C on 26 February.
• Closer in, the day-ahead rose for the third consecutive session to PLN744.07/MWh for Friday delivery from PLN690.64/MWh for Thursday amid the full halt of the 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant over 14-15 February due to planned works.
• However, wind will remain firm on the day at a 19% load factor tomorrow from 13% today - likely capping gains slightly.

• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 19% load factor on 15 February (Sat) – likely dropping prices from the previous session coupled with typically lower weekend demand.