POWER: Poland’s March Drops to Mid-Feb Low, Spot to Be Dented Next Week

Poland’s March fell to its lowest price since 17 February as price falls in European coal weighed, with an upward revision of average temperature forecasts in Warsaw also denting the product. Spot prices are likely to be lower on the week next week amid wind load factors between 30-82% over 3-6 March.

• Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN429.85/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN434.72/MWh on 25 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• EUA DEC 25 down 0.9% at 71.08 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.8% at 93.5 USD/MT
• The contract hit its lowest price since 17 February at PLN429.61/MWh
• The March contract traded 40 times in 48 lots from 76 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN430.50/MWh before dropping to a daily low of PLN429.25/MWh and climbing sharply to a daily high of PLN435/MWh. It ended the session at PLN429.50/MWh.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised up over 27 February-3 March by as much as 2C and will remain above the seasonal average until 12 March.
• Wind speeds in Poland were also revised up over 27 February- 3 March by as much as 1m/s but will remain mostly below the 30-year norm throughout the 6-10 day forecasts.
• Closer in, the day-ahead fell to PLN576.45/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN584.88/MWh for Wednesday as Polish wind is expected at an 7% load factor tomorrow from 8% today.
• Additionally, the unplanned outage at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended to 28 February from 27 February, with unit still curtailed by 424MW.
• However, temperatures are anticipated to rise to 4.55C tomorrow from 4.45C today.
• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 4% load factor on 28 February – which could continue to keep spot prices elevated.

• Wind will then be between 7-82% load factors over 3-7 March, with the highest amount of wind over 4-5 March at 81-81% factors. The lowest amount will be on 7 March at just a 7% load factor.