FED: Powell: Moving Away From Dual Mandate Goals Probably For "Balance Of Year"

• RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
• RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
• RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11  
• PRICE: 1.0920 @ 16:26 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0674 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.0557 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4     
• SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support  

Trend conditions in EURUSD remain bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current uptrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0557, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.    

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXK5 129/130.5/132/133.5 call condor paper paid 0.335/0.345 on 20K.
• RXK5 127/126 ps, bought for 33.5 in 10k.
• RXK5 130c, bought for 49.5 in ~5.6k.
• RXK5 126.50/125.50ps, bought for 33 in 7.75k.
• ERJ5 97.875/98.00 call spread paper paid 2 on 10k
• ERK5 97.62/97.50ps 1x2, bought for 1 in 15k.
• ERM5 97.62/97.50ps bought for 1.75 in 16.5k.

The lack of a coherent plan to counter the Trump administration’s aggressive policy moves is weighing heavily on the Democratic party, according to a new CNN survey.

• CNN notes: “Among the American public overall, the Democratic Party’s favorability rating stands at just 29% – a record low in CNN’s polling dating back to 1992 and a drop of 20 points since January 2021”.
• The party’s standing is likely to fall further after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) bucked the majority of his colleagues by voting in favour of a partisan Republican spending bill to avert a government shutdown.
• CNN notes: “The majority’s desire to fight the GOP marks a significant change in the party’s posture from the start of Trump’s first term. A September 2017 poll found a broad 74% majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners saying their party should work with Republicans in an attempt to advance their own priorities, and just 23% advocating for a more combative approach.”
• The survey data suggests Democrat leadership may be more empowered to take a hardline posture when given leverage in Congress, potentially on a standalone debt ceiling bill or at the government funding deadline in September.

Figure 1: Opinion of Democratic Party Among US Adults

Source: Semafor, CNN