OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In S&P E-Minis Remains Intact 

• In FX, a short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact for now. Attention is on the candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0427, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
• GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
• USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. A break would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The key support and bear trigger is at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.

SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME

• 1M 4.31439 -0.00299
• 3M 4.31802 0.00298
• 6M 4.29233 0.00928
• 12M 4.24398 0.01958

• Size: E8bln (MNI expected a E8-10bln size)
• Spread set at 3.25% May-55 OAT + 4bp (guidance: was 7bps area then revised to +5bps +/-1 WPIR)
• Books above E115bln (including E2.84bln JLM interest)
• Maturity: 25 May 2056
• Settlement: 19 February 2025 (T+5)
• Coupon: Fixed, annual ACT/ACT, payable each 25 May. Full first coupon on 25 May 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (DM and B&D) / Citi / DB / JPM / SG
• Books closed. Allocations and pricing later today