OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
Jan-08 12:03
- On the commodity front, a bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract has traded higher again, today. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $71.11. This average is seen as a key short-term support.
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SONIA: SONIA FIX - 09/12/24
Dec-09 12:02
SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE
- 1M 4.69770 -0.001
- 3M 4.64260 -0.0059
- 6M 4.53170 -0.0162
- 12M 4.34810 -0.0314
US TSYS: PBOC Stimulus Sees Bear Steepening But On Low Volumes
Dec-09 11:53
- Treasuries are mostly lower on the day after selling impetus following a dovish monetary policy tweak from the PBOC, although volumes have been light as US CPI on Wednesday and approaching year-end seems to weigh on activity.
- Cash yields are unchanged (2s) to 2bp higher (30s).
- 2s10s has steepened to 6.3bps (+1.2bp) but remains within last week’s range.
- TYH5 trades at 111-13 (- 01+) off session highs of 111-18+ but has remained within Friday’s range throughout the overnight session, all on very low cumulative volumes of 235k.
- Friday’s post-payrolls high of 111-20+ cleared the 50-day EMA and strengthens a bull cycle. It’s now an initial resistance level after which lies 111-23 (38.2% retrace of Sep 11 – Nov 15 bear leg). To the downside, support at 110-18 (Dec 4 low).
- Data: Wholesale inventories, trade sales Oct F/Oct (1000ET), NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Nov (1100ET)
- Fedspeak: FOMC media blackout
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $81B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Dec-09 11:50
- On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
