OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Mar-14 11:32
- In FX, a bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just below this week’s high. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and for now, are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0544, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind. First support is 1.0766, the Mar 6 low.
- GBPUSD is unchanged and the trend outlook remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2644, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective. First support lies at 1.2862, the Mar 10 low.
- The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
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EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI & Revisions, Fed Chair Powell in House
Feb-12 11:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
- 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
- 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
- 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
- 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
- 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$94.8B)
- 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)
STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Sept With CPI and Powell Response Eyed
Feb-12 11:26
- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s push higher (seen prior to Powell’s Senate appearance with his comments then consolidating the move) ahead of today’s US CPI report and Powell’s turn in the House.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Mar, 6.5bp May, 14bp Jun, 19bp Jul, 26bp Sep and 36bp Dec.
- CPI headlines today’s macro docket whilst the second day of Powell’s congressional testimony at 1000ET will be watched for any reaction to the data in the Q&A. He characterized the labor market as “very strong” vs “solid” in recent months, and noted the neutral rate has risen meaningfully since before the pandemic.
- MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Feb2025_e3ccd233d6.pdf
- Today’s other Fedspeak sees only Bostic as set to talk on mon pol matters. We watch for any further hawkish shift with Hammack and Logan recently very subtly speculating about a possible rate hike as the Fed’s next move (more on that here).
- 1200ET – Bostic (non-voter) on economic outlook (Q&A only). He said earlier this month that he wants to see the impact of past cuts and may wait “for a while” and doesn’t think there will be inflation clarity by the Fed’s next meeting. He sees nominal neutral at 3-3.5%
- 1705ET – Waller (permanent voter) on stablecoins (text + Q&A)
