OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls remain In The Driver's Seat

• In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last  week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a 2.00 projection of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5976.83, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is at 5726.75, the Mar 12 high.
• The medium-term trend direction in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg. A  resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.

UBS expect the FY25/26 gilt remit to provide fresh steepening pressure for the 2s10s curve.

• A couple of other factors also play into their view:
• They expect “an uneventful MPC to offer little support to gilts, especially since the data following the last meeting has also been relatively strong”.
• They are also of the view that “the broad-based deterioration in consumer confidence and ongoing drag from higher mortgage payments are posing downside risks to growth forecasts.” 

• EUR/USD: $1.0600(E5.6bln), $1.0840-50(E790mln), $1.0900(E571mln)
• USD/JPY: Y146.90-15($1.2bln), Y149.00-15($1.1bln)
• GBP/USD: $1.3300(Gbp1.1bln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8435(E830mln)