OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls remain In The Driver's Seat
Apr-16 11:03
- On the commodity front, today’s extension in Gold reinforces current bullish conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3347.67, the1.382 projection of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing. Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA.
- 0In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally on Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In S&P E-Minis Remains Present
Mar-17 10:59
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a 2.00 projection of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5976.83, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is at 5726.75, the Mar 12 high.
- The medium-term trend direction in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
GILTS: UBS Continue To Like 2s10s Steepeners
Mar-17 10:52
UBS expect the FY25/26 gilt remit to provide fresh steepening pressure for the 2s10s curve.
- A couple of other factors also play into their view:
- They expect “an uneventful MPC to offer little support to gilts, especially since the data following the last meeting has also been relatively strong”.
- They are also of the view that “the broad-based deterioration in consumer confidence and ongoing drag from higher mortgage payments are posing downside risks to growth forecasts.”
OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar17 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Mar-17 10:48
- EUR/USD: $1.0600(E5.6bln), $1.0840-50(E790mln), $1.0900(E571mln)
- USD/JPY: Y146.90-15($1.2bln), Y149.00-15($1.1bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3300(Gbp1.1bln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8435(E830mln)
