OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Continues To Appreciate
Feb-05 12:05
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and this week’s appreciation, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2889.9 next, a 1.618 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2698.4, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2746.5.
- In the oil space, last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.30 (pierced). A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance. Initial resistance is $75.18, the Feb 3 high.
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EGB OPTIONS: Bund put buyer
Jan-06 12:03
RXG5 124p, bought for 1.5 in 2.5k.
BONDS: Paring small gains
Jan-06 11:58
- Some of the bids in Govies are starting to be met by sellers, TYH5 is sold in 3.5k FVH5 2.6k and TUH5 2.5k.
- EGBs are still mostly within ranges, and the Bund contract hasn't managed to really extend higher, after it closed its opening gap up to 132.50 earlier, printed a 132.57 high so far for the day.
- It is a very busy Week ahead, European CPIs, US Labour Data and also Heavy Supply are due this Week.
FOREX: USD Significantly Weaker Amid Report on Softening Trump Tariff Policy
Jan-06 11:52
- The Washington Post reports that US President-elect Donald Trump’s aides are "exploring plans" to apply tariffs to every country “but only cover critical imports” providing potential for slightly less protectionist U.S. trade policy. The article has bolstered the existing direction of travel for the greenback on Monday, with the USD index extending session lows and briefly bringing the DXY’s pullback to around 1.5% from last week’s highs.
- EURUSD (+1.05%) surged back above 1.0400, and notably rose above initial 20-day EMA resistance to print a 1.0432 high, having now recovered over 200 pips from the 1.0226 lows on Jan 02. Above here, 1.0458 is the Dec 30 high.
- Similar strength seen across higher beta currencies such as AUD and NZD, which extend gains to around 1% on the day. Cable has risen back above 1.25 and will look to initial firm resistance at 1.2562, the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY also significantly knocked off its highs, reversing around 70 pips to trade closer to unchanged on the session. USDMXN (-0.80%) prints fresh session lows below 20.50.
- There will be particular focus on the Canadian dollar as betting markets shift to 95% probability of imminent PM Trudeau resignation. USDCAD is down 0.9% on the session with pullback seen as technically corrective at this juncture. Initial firm support has been pierced at 1.4320, the 20-day EMA.
- German national-level HICP & CPI inflation is scheduled to be released later today 13:00 GMT. US Final Services PMI and Factory Orders are due for release, and FOMC Member Cook will speak.
