OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gold Still Points North
Apr-24 10:49
- On the commodity front, the trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. The latest move down appears corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, the 1.764 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3194.1, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open; $58.29, the Apr 10 low, and $53.72, the 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $65.96, the 50-day EMA.
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US TSYS: TYA Testing Another Support; Confidence, Kugler and 2Y Supply Ahead
Mar-25 10:48
- Treasuries are again testing lows amidst a broader sell-off, with EGBs ostensibly underperforming on the day although much of that looks like catch-up for price action since yesterday’s close.
- Today’s see consumer confidence headline various second tier data releases, permanent voter Kugler speaking for the first time since last week’s FOMC and 2Y supply after last month’s booming demand from indirects.
- US equity futures hold onto the bulk of yesterday’s strong gains whilst crude oil futures have modestly extended gains.
- Cash yields are 2-3bp higher on the day, whilst 2s10s at 31bp (+0.6bp) is within recent ranges.
- TYM5 is again testing recent lows after yesterday’s clearance of 20-day EMA support, with a latest low of 110-10 (-07+) dipping through 110-12+ (Mar 6/13 lows). Volumes are reasonable at 325k.
- A clearer break could open 110-05+ (50-day EMA) before a key 110-00 (Feb 7 high), although the trend structure remains bullish with resistance at 111-17+ (Mar 20 high).
- Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Mar (0830ET), FHFA/S&P CoreLogic house prices Jan (0900ET), Conf. Board consumer survey Mar (1000ET), New home sales Feb (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Mar (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: Kugler on economy (text only), Williams opening remarks (text only)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auctions - 91282CMV0 (1300ET). Last month’s 2Y auction stopped through by 1bp whilst indirect take surged to a new high of 85.5%, bouncing from 65.0% to clear the previous high of 82.1% in December.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar25 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Mar-25 10:37
- EUR/USD: $1.0850(E1.2bln), $1.0900(E1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2835(Gbp578mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6255-65(A$674mln), $0.6350-60(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4550($631mln)
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl
Mar-25 10:32
| 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU25042 | |
| Total sold | E4.5bln | E4.5bln |
| Allotted | E3.431bln | E3.505bln |
| Avg yield | 2.44% | 2.15% |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.43x | 1.32x |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.87x | 1.69x |
| Average Price | 99.78 | 101.19 |
| Low acc. Price | 99.77 | 101.18 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.756 | 101.170 |
| Previous date | 04-Mar-25 |
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