LATAM FX: Price Signal Summary – USDMXN Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- The USDMXN trend structure remains bullish. Today’s break higher has confirmed a breach of key resistance at 20.9382, the Jan 17 high, to mark a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher also highlights the end of a sideways trend that has been in place early November 2024. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 21.4007 and 21.5807, the 3.00 and 3.236 projections of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - 4 ‘24 price swing. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 20.5499. Key support has been defined at 20.1343, the Jan 24 low.
- The USDBRL medium-term bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback still appears corrective. However, the 50-day EMA has been breached. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has resulted in a print below 5.8675, the Dec 12 low. The break of this level exposes the 5.8000 handle, and 5.7231, the Nov 31 low. On the upside, a reversal would refocus attention on 6.3165, the Dec 18 high and the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 5.9699, the 20-day EMA.
- A medium-term uptrend in USDCLP remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. The pair has pierced firm support at 987.09, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight potential for a deeper retracement and open 966.86, the Dec 6 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1020.18 and 1026.48, the 1.236 and 1.382 projection points of the Nov 7 - 12 - Dec 6 price swing.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
