EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: PVH; tariff impact

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a statement on X claiming he is, "ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible". The statement, a response to recent comments from US President Donald Trump and members of his inner circle, shows a clear shift in tone on a ceasefire and Trump's leadership. 

• Zelenskyy says "I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts," dropping calls for long-term security assurances.
• Zelenskyy proposes a framework for a ceasefire that includes "the release of prisoners and truce in the sky," if "Russia will do the same".
• The statement addresses the primary concerns raised by Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and advisor Elon Musk with a more differential tone: "We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine," and adding Kyiv is "grateful" for weapons provided during the first Trump admin.
• Zelenskyy indicates he will sign the mineral sharing agreement at "any time and in any convenient format." Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), the chair of the bipartisan Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said in a statement on X yesterday: “We are 100% getting this train back on the tracks," after a call with Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak. 
• Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC), a longtime Ukraine-backer who strongly criticised Zelenskyy’s Oval Office performance, said: “I've told President Zelenskyy: Do the minerals deal, see if we can get an arms package, and we'll talk about a good ending to the war. And that's the sequence.”
• Vance told Fox News' Sean Hannity yesterday that Trump "will be the first person to pick up the phone" when Zelenskyy is "willing to seriously talk peace…"

• EUR/USD: $1.0300-20(E1.7bln), $1.0325-35(E1.1bln), $1.0430-50(E1.3bln), $1.0500-05(E746mln)
  USD/JPY: Y147.90-00($702mln), Y148.50($505mln), Y149.00($720mln), Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
• EUR/JPY: Y161.75(E1.2bln)
• GBP/USD: $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.4475-80(C$1.2bln), $1.4495-00($1.9bln), C$1.4560($636mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.3265($600mln)

• The market reaction to the February flash PMIs was largely due to the much weaker-than-expected French services PMI reading of 44.5 (vs consensus of 48.9), a 17-month low.
• It's worth noting that the French final services PMI (due tomorrow) has been revised higher 4 out of the last 5 months, and we expect there is probably a good chance that we see another higher revision tomorrow.
• The EC's services sentiment index has not shown a similar pullback with a print of -0.8 in February (vs -2.1 in January and December). This is the highest reading since October 2024, though it is the ninth successive negative print.
• It is too early to tell whether the disappointing flash PMI is real signal or noise, and therefore it is important not to overreact from signals from one-month of soft data. Despite referring to a different month's data, this is a similar message outlined in the ECB's January accounts: "The euro area economy had seen some encouraging signs in the January flash PMIs, although it had to be recognised that, in these uncertain times, hard data seemed more important than survey results".
• Looking further ahead, services activity remains moderate (likely contributing to the weaker than expected Q4 GDP reading of -0.1% Q/Q), the divergence between the EC services sentiment and February flash PMI points to potential two-way risk to Q1 GDP. If we see an upward revision to tomorrow's services PMI, we may be on track for less disappointment than the market is positioned for.