SNB: Quarterly Bulletin / Business Cycle Signals Provide Backdrop of SNB Cut
The SNB has published their "quarterly bulletin" as well as their quarterly "business cycle signals". Key highlights:
- "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to remain stable or rise slightly (chart 8). On the one hand, reductions in the price of electricity and gas are curbing costs. On the other hand, the rising prices of certain raw materials and inputs are leading to slight upward pressure on purchase prices in manufacturing and construction" - suggests risks of material deflation in Switzerland are limited for the moment "
- The companies surveyed report solid turnover growth overall in the first quarter. Growth momentum in the services sector and construction remains robust. Turnover in manufacturing also saw tangible growth, having barely increased in previous quarters" - the KOF indicator points towards robust growth ahead
- "Companies are no longer as concerned as in previous years about the shortage of specialist staff and recruitment difficulties. Staffing levels are approximately in line with companies’ needs" - mirroring the softening labour market in Switzerland
- "The growth outlook is brightening somewhat but is still subject to considerable uncertainty. In particular, as long as the precise details of the new US administration’s trade policy are not known, the effects are difficult for companies to assess" - as expected given the current global backdrop
Link to the quarterly bulletin (also contains business cycle signals
publication on the back): https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/quarterly-bulletin/2025/quartbul_2025_1_komplett
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Historical bullets
BONDS: Tnotes/Bund spread tests the 2025 low
- HEADS UP! Tightening bias in the Tnotes/Bund spread continues today, and we are now looking to test the 2025 low situated at 194.5bps.
- While the next hurdle is still seen at the rounded 190.00bps level, better is seen towards ~184.61bps.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6088.20/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6052.75 @ 14:26 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 6014.00 Low Feb 10
- SUP 2: 5935.50 Low Feb 3
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
S&P E-Minis faded sharply off their recent highs, last week. The move down appears corrective - for now - and a bullish theme is intact. Attention is on the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the primary longer-term uptrend. On the downside, initial key near-term support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A breach would highlight a bearish development and expose 5935.50, the Feb 3 low.
SCANDIS: Goldman Recommend Long NOK/SEK, Targetting 0.9700
Goldman Sachs recommended going long NOKSEK late Friday, targeting 0.9700 with a stop-loss of 0.9475.
- As noted earlier, they think “rising optimism for a quick fix to Europe looks overdone”.
- “When we examine our economists’ upside growth scenarios against the Euro’s typical responsiveness to activity data, we think the recent rally in the Euro and its satellites has moved a long way towards pricing a fairly optimistic outcome on several fronts”.
- Their models highlight that NOKSEK “responds to the relative policy outlook and commodity prices, both of which could see a reversal in fortunes if peace talks and European fiscal discussions are more drawn out”.
