ECB: Question on ECB's Inflation Analysis Contemplating a Retaliation
- Q: Does your inflation analysis contemplate Europe retaliating and at any point or you don't speculate about these things? I'm especially worried because digital services could be targeted, and I know you're always very attentive to the service element of inflation.
- A: We have a methodology to take into account developments, and the level of scrutiny is high, whether it is completely legislated or so certain in its outcome that we can actually take it into our exercise. And the analysis that we do when we are not too sure, we constantly do some scenario analysis to assess and estimate what the impact would be of such or such other decisions. And that exercise will be intense. In the next few weeks and will, you know, give rise to some very serious results at our June projection meeting. But currently, if you ask me about the counter measures, they are not included in the sort of baseline that that we have.
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 10Y Volatility Buying
- +15,000 TYM5 107.5/113.5 strangles, 35 vs. 110-18.5/0.05% at 0917:53ET
- Additionally, +9,000 TYM5 108/113 strangles, 45 vs. 110-19/0.05% on screen
UK: BOE MNI Instant Answer questions for March 2025 meet
The BOE policy decision is due March 20, with the answers to below questions published at midday:
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for cut of 50bp or greater?
3. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
4. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” to removing “policy restraint being appropriate” from their Statement?
6. In the guidance, alongside a “gradual” approach to removing policy restraint, did the MPC use “careful”?
7. Did the MPC again say Bank Rate is likely to “remain restrictive for sufficiently long”?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the February policy statement?
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
US Cash opening calls, set for a steady open, SPX should be close to Yesterday's mid range, as the Emini also trades at Yesterday's mid pre Cash open.
- Calls: SPX: 5,659.3 (-0.3%); DJIA: 41,799 (-0.1%/-43pts); NDX: 19,708.3 (-0.5%).
