SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa Says S. Africa "Won't Be Bullied" Amid Tensions With US
Feb-07 07:11
- President Cyril Ramaphosa told parliament in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) that South Africa "won't be bullied", sending a defiant message to the US after President Donald Trump threatened to cut all aid to the country and Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided to skip a G20 summit in Johannesburg. Furthermore, Ramaphosa outlined plans to continue implementing a structural reform agenda, aiming to "lift economic growth to above 3%". Expectedly, some Government of National Unity (GNU) parties expressed cautious optimism about the speech, while opposition parties MK, EFF and ActionSA signalled their disappointment.
- Ramaphosa said that the government will "proceed with the preparatory work for the establishment of the National Health Insurance (NHI)" but did not mention any changes to the initial project. The proposed NHI bill sowed division among GNU parties but recent reports suggested that they managed to reach compromise over a revised version of the legislation.
- The National Treasury will sell linkers today.
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MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
Jan-08 07:11
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES 2.5% Y/Y
BTP TECHS: (H5) Southbound
Jan-08 07:10
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.45/120.51 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.08 @ Close Jan 7
- SUP 1: 119.01 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
- SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.51, the 20-day EMA.
SWEDEN: Swedish flash inflation a little softer - but not monpol impacts
Jan-08 07:08
- The Riksbank had forecast CPIF at 1.9%Y/Y (consensus 1.7%Y/Y, actual 1.5%Y/Y). So 0.4ppt below the stale Riksbank forecast and 0.2ppt below consensus.
- For CPIF ex energy the Riksbank forecast was 2.2%Y/Y (consensus was also 2.2%Y/Y). That came in at 2.1%Y/Y so only 0.1ppt below both the Riksbank and consensus.
- So overall the downside miss wasn't huge. EURSEK remains below its overnight highs (Bbg data shows a high of 11.511 post-data) but we are broadly back in line with pre-data levels at 11.507 at the time of writing.
- There's very little details released with the flash, but at first glance this doesn't really impact the expectation of another 25bp cut by the Riksbank in Q1 with an uncertain monpol outlook thereafter.
