ZAR: Rand Stabilises After Trump-Induced Whipsaw
Spot USD/ZAR retraced its initial upswing yesterday, with wider greenback gyrations helping drive the pair on both swings. The rand came under additional pressure owing to US President Trump's threat to cut aid to South Africa, but initial concerns seemingly dissipated later on. The pair has been hovering above neutral levels, last dealing at 18.7533. On the topside, the focus is on Jan 13 high of 19.2296. Initial support is at 18.3022, the low print of Jan 24.
- Key players on South African political scene closed ranks in the face of Trump's comments on the recently signed Expropriation Act, pushing back against his threats of punitive measures. President Cyril Ramaphosa will be seeking contact with his US counterpart to explain the situation and defuse tensions.
- Meanwhile, Ramaphosa is also expected to attend a regional security summit in Tanzania this Saturday. The event will also be attended by Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. South African peacekeepers remain stranded in Congo amid intensified fighting with Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.
- SAGB yields sit a tad lower across the curve. South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates sit at 4.35% and 5.53% respectively. The National Treasury will today sell ZAR1.25bn of 8.25% 2032 bonds, ZAR1.25bn of 8.50% 2037 bonds and ZAR1.25bn of 8.75% 2048 bonds.
- The composite BBG Commodity Index has shed around 1%, while the precious metals subindex is 0.5% worse off.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
