INDIA: RBI Cut Likely Fueled by Declining Inflation Expectations.
Apr-10 05:00
- Following the RBI’s second successive cut, the Central Bank released its households’ inflation expectations survey for March.
- The survey is conducted in 19 major cities with over 6,000 respondents.
- Households’ inflation perception for March declined a further 50bps from the previous survey.
- This is the lowest result since the pandemic.
- Households’ forward looking inflation expectations for three months and 1 year declined 40bps and 50bps respectively.
- The number of households expecting a rise in general prices and inflation for both the near and longer term declined relative to the las survey.
- Households expect that the trend of lower food prices to continue and that housing costs should follow this downward trend.
- Next week the March CPI is released for India, with surveys suggesting a further decline from 3.61% to 3.53% which would be the lowest print since 2019.
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: China Advisor On Support Property Company Consolidations
Mar-11 04:59
A senior China advisor eyes official support for property company consolidations. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
INDONESIA: Q1 Sentiment Higher Than Q4 Signalling Robust Consumption Growth
Mar-11 04:57
February consumer confidence fell to 126.4 from 127.2, the second consecutive decline bringing it to its lowest since November. Sentiment is still around 2 points above the Q4 2024 average though, signalling continued solid consumption growth and possibly a pickup in Q1 from Q4’s 5.0% y/y (see chart below).
Indonesia consumption
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Bank Indonesia has cut rates twice now to “drive economic growth” and it continues to use macroprudential policies to support the economy, which is likely to be maintained given rupiah weakness in the face of global uncertainty (USDIDR +0.5% today to 16425.5). In February it said that growth is “solid” but “must still be encouraged”, which suggests that it would like to reduce rates further if the currency will allow.
- The decline in consumer confidence last month was driven by the expectations component which fell 1.5% m/m driven by broad-based weakness, while economic conditions rose 0.6% m/m driven by the durable goods purchase measure. Current and expected employment indices were lower.
- Consumer confidence is a good indicator for real quarterly consumption. Monthly data has not been as robust though with retail sales volumes lacklustre up 1.8% y/y in December. Auto sales growth is off its early 2024 lows but continues to contract falling 11.3% y/y in January. Credit growth to individuals is also off its high growing 3.2% y/y in January down from 9.8% y/y in January 2024.
- Tourist arrivals remain robust rising 13.9% y/y in December but this was down from December 2023’s 32.5% y/y.
US TSY FLOWS: Block Buy
Mar-11 04:57
+4,050 of TYM5 at 111-17+, post-time 04:08:07 GMT. The contract has traded higher since and is currently at +111-19.
