EURGBP TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8334 @ 16:47 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded higher on Thursday, extending the rebound from Monday’s 0.8248 low. This undermines the recent bear threat. The cross has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The 20-day average is at 0.8363, a clear breach of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.8388 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the first bear trigger.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: Over $23B to Price Wednesday
$23.15B to Price Wednesday, $119.65B total for the week
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $4.25B *IADB 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $3B *Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $2B *Indonesia $900M 5Y 5.3%, $1.1B 10Y 5.65%
- 01/08 $1.75B #Deutsche Bank $1.25B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR
- 01/08 $1.5B *Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $1.4B #HF Sinclair $650B 6Y +135, $750M 10Y +162.5
- 01/08 $1.25B #Santander UK 6.25NC5.25 +125
- 01/08 $500M #Northwestern Mutual 5Y +50
- 01/08 $500M Novelis 5NC2
- 01/08 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y +47a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Codelco 10Y +170, 30Y +190
- May price Thursday
- 01/09 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage continues to recede, $185.144B this afternoon from $208.296 Tuesday. Compares to $98.356B on Friday, December 20 - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties slips to 48 from 56.
US: Deficit Hawks Warn Against Debt Limit Hike Ahead Of Key Trump Meetings
Axios reports that a handful of deficit hawks from the House Freedom Caucus could sink the entire Republican agenda if House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) follows through with plans to attach a debt ceiling hike to a huge multi-item reconciliation bill.
- Axios notes that Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Tim Burchett (R-TN) "have never voted to increase the debt ceiling," with Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) noting: "I heard that there are three people that will not vote for a debt ceiling lift, which already kills the bill,"
- On the other side of the ledger, a group of blue-state moderate Republicans have vowed to oppose any reconciliation package that doesn’t include Trump’s pledge to lift the cap on State and Local Tax deductions (SALT).
- Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told reporters yesterday he's "been very clear from the start that I will not support a tax bill that does not lift the [SALT] cap". Of course, the inclusion of a SALT hike is likely to add hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficit and risk a more severe conservative rebellion.
- President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Senate Republicans today at 18:00 ET 23:00 GMT and then with House Republicans on Saturday to determine final strategy for legislation.
- Punchbowl News notes that oscillation over strategy has put the GOP behind schedule for an incoming administration: "Eight years ago, the Senate had already passed a budget resolution — the first step in the process — before Trump even took office.”
