GILTS: Recovery From GDP-Driven Lows Extends As Energy Prices Soften

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that Russia will “study” US President-elect Donald Trump’s peace initiatives on Ukraine, “when he takes office,” another signal that a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may not take place in the early period of Trump’s second term. 

• Lavrov added, per Reuters: “We will wait for concrete peace initiatives on Ukraine.”
• Moscow appears to be adopting a wait-and-see strategy on Trump talks, with the Trump team managing expectations that a resolution to the conflict can be achieved within the first 100 days of the administration.
• The final days of the Biden administration have seen a push to strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position, hitting Moscow with sweeping sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and surging military hardware to assist with fortifying Ukrainian control of Russia’s Kursk region. 
• Lavrov also addressed Trump’s comments on Greenland: “People of Greenland should be listened to first.” The Greenland comments are among the most geostrategically important of Trump's recent hawkish statements considering Moscow’s established presence in the Arctic and China’s self-declared status as a ‘near-Arctic state’, via which Beijing likely seeks greater influence over Arctic governance. Both will have long-term implications for hydrocarbon and mineral rights, navigation, and military predominance.
• The Arctic Institute think tank noted this week: “Russian political experts suggest that the likelihood of Trump getting involved in a conflict with NATO allies over Greenland is low...” However, a renegotiated US-Greenland military accord could degrade Russia's long-term influence in the Arctic. 

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24 
• RES 3: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg  
• RES 2: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.8424/29 50% of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg / Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8420 @ 10:30 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 0.8321/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8 
• SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone. The cross has cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. Sights are on 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would open 0.8448, the Oct 31 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8321.